September 24, 2022
We sound like a broken record, but the stakes have never been higher for Democrats this election cycle.
How could they not? On the chopping block are Biden’s agenda, abortion access, gun reform, voting rights (still), and a looming threat of a 2024 Trump comeback.
So far, Democrats have managed to tighten the leads in key races for Senate and House, but the already narrow majorities are vulnerable, and Democrat GOTV mobilization is critical to a pathway forward.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the latest polls:
Stakes are high; motivation is low
Abortion access has become and remains a salient issue, but to be clear, this is not THE primary issue across the map. Abortion access is key for women between the ages of 18 – 49 who are most impacted by restrictions, with a 14% increase in those stating this is “Very important” to voting this year (KFF Health Tracking Poll).
There is no one key issue or path to overall success in voter turnout. While Harvard and Politico’s recent poll confirms that abortion is a mobilizing issue, millions of Americans are struggling with inflation and gas prices, making the economy the top voting issue overall.
Now I have a machine gun. Ho-Ho-Ho.
Die Hard and MAGA republicans have something in common: Guns are a central prop in their narrative. But, gun policies are the most important issue after the economy. The recent spate of shootings in schools and public spaces have parents, grandparents, and community members concerned, and urgency of this issue, coupled with a feeling of helplessness, may be a driving force behind getting folks to the polls.
We do; they don’t.
The contrast between Republicans and Democrats has never been more clear. The recent voting record (climate, veteran benefits, right to contraception, voting rights, insulin price cap…) has shown Republicans will commit to party loyalty over constituencies, and voters must take note. Better yet, hand it to them on a silver platter, in the form of phone calls, door-to-door canvassing, text messages, and mailers. Don’t assume voters know about these votes.
Message early; message often.
The election is happening right now. Start early, keep in touch often. Be helpful, offer resources, support, information, and guidance. Share urgency for the key issues that matter most to each voter.